In the first version of expected score (xScore), we took the name of the brewery, the style, and the alcohol content of your beer, and were able to explain 55% of the variance in the scores you gave your beer, collectively. That wasn't bad, considering we knew nothing about your beer other than who brewed it and how strongly they brewed it.
But you made some good recommendations, and we tweaked the formula. In order to judge the brewery, we thought it would be best to ask how good their average beer was, and how many beers they made. So we took the number of beers from the brewery and used that as weighting for the regression statement -- the more beers your brewery makes, the more we can trust it, after all. And then we used BAR/beer to judge the quality of the brewery.
Some pointed out that not all styles are so alcohol dependent. Even our past research linking alcohol by volume to ratings was mostly style-specific. So gone is ABV by itself, and replacing it is ABV indexed to style. In other words, is the beer strong when compared to other beers in the style?
The new equation!
0.3502 + (0.1084 * (brewery bar / # beers) + (0.8190 * style replacement level) + (0.2225 * (beer abv / style avg abv))
The new R-squared on this significant relationship is .63, meaning we're pushing this expected score statistic to be about as predictive as last year's on-base percentage was for next year's on-base percentage for a hitter in baseball. In other words, pretty good. We're doing much better than a coin flip at this point.
And the leaderboards no longer have beers from small foreign breweries all over them. Cantillon and Drei Fonteinen, for example, have great BAR/beer stats (6.0 and 4.9) and feature sours (beers that outperform a general ABV relationship), and it was weird to have them on the list. This new list of overperformers is more interesting.
Here are the beers that outdid their expected beer score by the most:
|Maltus||Brasseurs Illimitus||Malt Liquor||4.0||2.7||-1.3||-0.75||1.64|
|Boh Ice||Pabst Brewing Company||American Adjunct Lager||4.3||3.0||-1.3||0.31||1.81|
|Classic Marzen||Schloss Eggenberg||Blonde Lager||4.6||3.4||-1.2||2.78||1.32|
Eylenbosch Faro Extra
|Brouwerij Mort Subite||Faro||4.1||2.9||-1.2||-2.24||0.86|
|Tennent's Original Export Lager||Tennent Caledonian Brewery||Euro Lager||4.1||2.9||-1.2||0.49||1.11|
|Apple Buzz||Oaken Barrel Brewing Company||Malt Liquor||4.0||2.9||-1.1||1.87||0.97|
|Bootleggers Hard Root Beer||Sprecher Brewing Company||Malt Liquor||3.7||2.6||-1.1||0.10||0.69|
|Bayer Spesial||Hansa Borg Bryggerier||Malt Beer||3.7||2.7||-1.0||-1.21||0.99|
|Menapir||Brouwerij Van Steenberge||Belgian Tripel||4.7||3.7||-1.0||0.98||1.19|
|Schlitz Red Bull XL||Pabst Brewing Company||Malt Liquor||3.7||2.7||-1.0||0.31||0.81|
|Village Tavern Old Post Road Porter||CB's Brewing Company||Porter||4.7||3.7||-1.0||1.60||1.20|
|Pumpkin Ale||Selin's Grove Brewing Co.||Herbed/Spiced Beer||4.5||3.5||-1.0||1.94||0.90|
|Fuumi Soukai-ni Shite Original Beer For Niigata||Sapporo Breweries||Pale Lager||4.0||3.0||-1.0||0.83||1.27|
|Summer Dream||Green Jack Brewing Company||English Pale Ale||4.3||3.3||-1.0||0.30||1.00|
|Light Rock Ale||RJ Rockers Brewing Company||Kolsch||4.4||3.4||-1.0||0.84||1.20|
|Gluten Freek||Wicked Weed Brewing||Gluten-Free||4.0||3.1||-0.9||2.18||1.77|
|Plead The 5th Phileas Foggs Anniversary Ale||Karl Strauss Brewing Company||English Barleywine||4.8||3.8||-0.9||1.47||1.29|
|Bill Fucking Murray! Malt Liquor||All Inn Brewing Co.||Malt Liquor||3.6||2.6||-0.9||0.42||0.66|
|Day Drinker||RJ Rockers Brewing Company||American IPA||4.5||3.6||-0.9||0.84||1.15|
|Dama 2014||Dama Bier||Pale Lager||3.9||3.0||-0.9||0.65||1.14|
|Falcon Bayerskt||Carlsberg Sverige||Vienna Lager||3.9||3.0||-0.9||-1.78||0.83|
|Black Raspberry Lambic||Southampton Publick House||Lambic||4.5||3.6||-0.8||-0.12||1.35|
Well, now it's pretty simple. You're getting good beers in weird styles from small brew houses. Pretty much all you can say, although All Inn has done it with an exclamation mark which should make you smile.
Is there something to take away from this? Style is the most important part of the equation, I doubt we can take it out. But we could show xScore-Avg Score leaders in certain styles. Let's look at the IPAs that most outdid their surroundings. These beers had little hype and killed it.
|Day Drinker||RJ Rockers Brewing Company||4.5||3.6||-0.9||0.84||1.15|
|Every Minute IPA||Dangerous Man Brewing Co.||4.5||3.8||-0.7||2.42||1.25|
|Orange Blossom Special||Kulshan Brewing Company||4.3||3.7||-0.6||1.33||1.15|
|Full Irish||Eight Degrees Brewing||4.3||3.7||-0.6||1.81||1.15|
|Fuzzy Baby Ducks||New England Brewing Co.||4.7||4.0||-0.6||4.78||1.19|
|Sartori Harvest IPA||Driftwood Brewery||4.5||3.9||-0.6||2.95||1.34|
|Redrum IPA 2nd Edition||AF Brew||4.7||4.1||-0.6||4.90||1.23|
|Sartori Harvest (2014)||Driftwood Brewery||4.5||3.9||-0.6||2.95||1.34|
|Surge Protector||Blue Point Brewing Company||4.1||3.5||-0.6||0.34||1.06|
|Virtual India Pale Ale||Lymestone Brewery||4.2||3.6||-0.6||1.04||0.96|
|Oaked & Galactified Horns Up (Rum Barrel Edition)||HopDog BeerWorks||4.4||3.8||-0.6||3.16||1.11|
|White Rajah||The Brew Kettle||4.3||3.7||-0.6||1.47||1.30|
|Cowiche Canyon Organic Fresh Hop Ale||Fremont Brewing||4.4||3.8||-0.6||3.06||1.15|
|Hop Harvest II||Portsmouth Brewery (NH)||4.2||3.6||-0.6||1.01||1.15|
|Mufloni CCCCC||Panimoravintola Beer Hunter's||4.0||3.4||-0.6||-0.09||0.86|
|Double Dry Hop Melcher Street||Trillium||4.6||4.1||-0.6||4.69||1.40|
|50 Shades Of Green||Elysian Brewing Company||4.2||3.6||-0.6||0.97||1.19|
|Redrum IPA||AF Brew||4.6||4.0||-0.5||4.90||1.11|
|Nelson||Alpine Beer Company (CA)||4.6||4.0||-0.5||4.40||1.34|
|Simcoe IPA||Alpha State||3.9||3.4||-0.5||-1.13||1.25|
Well now this is a list of beers we should maybe go look for. The ones I've had, at least, serve as a great recommendation for the rest of the beers. The Fremont Cowiche Canyon fresh hop, Alpine Nelson, the Every Minute from Dangerous Man -- these are great beers. Not a bad scouting tool, this xScore thing.
How about beers that did the worst compared to their expected score?
|Gourdgia On My Mind Pecan Peach Pumpkin Amber||Elysian Brewing Company||Pumpkin / Yam Beer||1.4||3.6||2.2||0.97||1.22|
|Pestilence||Rivertown Brewing Company||Sour Ale||2.2||3.8||1.6||0.81||1.10|
|Bourbon Barrel Aged Token||Alpine Beer Company (CA)||American Porter||2.7||4.2||1.5||4.40||2.04|
|Tanrei Platinum Double||Kirin Brewery Company||Happoshu||1.3||2.8||1.5||0.39||1.20|
|French Rouge||Suntory||American Amber / Red Lager||1.9||3.4||1.4||0.38||1.39|
|Roble Blanco (2014)||The Bruery||Sour Ale||3.1||4.5||1.4||3.50||3.06|
|Gluten Free Brown Ale||New Planet||American Brown Ale||2.0||3.4||1.4||-1.88||1.54|
|Clear Creek Ice||Minhas Craft Brewery||Imperial / Double Pilsner||1.7||3.1||1.4||-2.02||0.91|
|Speedway Stout (Lapsang Tea)||AleSmith Brewing Company||American Imperial / Double Stout||3.0||4.3||1.3||3.57||1.34|
|Pabst Blue Ribbon Dry||Pabst Brewing Company||American Strong Ale||2.3||3.6||1.3||0.31||0.78|
|Nothing Left of A Lager (Caol Ila B.A.)||Brouwerij het Uiltje||Kellerbier / Zwickelbier||2.1||3.4||1.3||0.24||1.23|
|Lokal Bier||Cervejaria Petr√≥polis||Pilsner||1.7||3.0||1.3||-1.51||1.25|
|Oud Bruin||Lindeboom||Cream Ale||1.9||3.2||1.3||-0.54||0.86|
|Piedboeuf Tripel||Brasserie Piedboeuf (ABInBev)||Belgian Tripel||2.1||3.3||1.2||-0.56||0.50|
|Storm||BrewDog||Imperial / Double IPA||2.6||3.8||1.2||1.30||1.03|
|Krampus Speciale||Birrificio Del Ducato||Sour Ale||2.6||3.8||1.2||0.71||1.43|
|Bavaria Classica||FEMSA Cerveja Brasil||Pilsner||1.6||2.8||1.2||-3.02||1.23|
|Cariboo India Ale||Pacific Western Brewing||American Pale Ale||2.3||3.5||1.2||0.65||1.28|
I think this nailed it. I mean if you told me that you had a kellerbier aged in Caol Isla barrels I'd run you over to drink it. A Speedway Stout varietal? A sour from The Bruery? An Alpine Porter? And an oud bruin cream ale? Wait, not sure about that last one.
And, really, you shouldn't be sure about any of these beers.
Or about xScore -- it's ready for tweak number two, if you see an easy way to change it up.